Perspective

The coronavirus outbreak in China is now a public health crisis in the United States.  I’m going to assume that what this essentially means is people traveling to and from China will now be subject to mandatory testing, evaluation, and/or quarantine to ensure they are not infected with the virus.  I can’t believe how much of my news feed seems dedicated to the terror of this new viral outbreak, and I can only imagine how much fear is being created by non-stop news reports in other media.

Some perspective.  There have been six confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the US so far.  Or more technically, six cases traced in some way to the current outbreak in China, which is where the virus was first identified as a new form of coronavirus.  There is a family of coronaviruses we already know about.  This is just a new one.

Six cases in the US and no deaths so far.

In China there are believed to be 11,000 cases of this particular coronavirus with a total of 200 deaths attributed to it.   In fact, by and large, this coronavirus is not a lethal one except in cases of complications.  But numbers cause people to panic.  One in 55 cases of the coronavirus in China have resulted in fatalities.

By point of comparison, the Centers for Disease Control released statistics on the influenza rates in the US.  Interesting details:

  • They estimate 19 million flu cases in the US alone during the 2019-2020 flu season so far
  • There have been 180,000 hospitalizations for flu-related issues in the US thus far this season
  • There have been 10,000 deaths associated with the flu  in the US thus far this season

The relationship of the flu virus to fatalities seems like a tricky one to me.  For instance, this news story highlighted the tragic and unexpected eath of a 34-year old woman from the flu.  However it also notes she had an undiagnosed pre-existing condition that contributed to the flu virus being fatal for her.  No mention of what that condition was, but it sounds to me like it wasn’t just “the flu” that killed her.

I wonder how many of the coronavirus fatalities were due not exclusively to the virus itself but to complicating factors that aren’t included or noted in the statistics?

To break down the numbers:

  • Roughly 1 in 17 people in the US get the flu – far more prevalent than the coronavirus thus far
  • Of those who do get the flu, only one in 10,000 dies from it (or  from complications associated with it, as noted above)

The CDC itself admits this flu season is pretty typical both in terms of the number of flu infections (both diagnosed and estimated) as well as the number of deaths resulting from it.  They claim there is no reliable data yet to determine whether the flu shot has been efficacious this season, but they claim the flu shot is always the best way to prevent flu and its potentially serious complications.   I’m not sure how they can make such a blanket statement, but there you go.  They also note that the major flu strains identified so far this season are all susceptible to FDA-approved antivirals.  Which means if you get the flu, it’s likely you will be greatly helped by an antiviral prescription.

There is no vaccine or treatment for the coronavirus or any of  it’s previously identified relatives.  Overwhelmingly if you get it, you’ll get flu-like symptoms that will go away with no long-term residual effects.  No more than an ordinary cold or flu, at least.

Try not to panic.  Especially if you aren’t traveling to China or spending time with sick people who have.  Turn the TV off and go outside for a breath of fresh air.  It will do you more good than digesting hours of panicked updates on the coronavirus.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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